A Confidence Calibration Exercise
Do you know what you know?
Answer each true/false question below, then set the slider to how confident you are in your answer. 50% means you have no idea (a coin flip between the two choices); 100% means you are completely certain.
Good judgment is not just being right. It is knowing how likely you are to be right. Skip any question you like; only answered questions are scored.
You want your mean confidence and your actual percent correct to be as close as possible. Most people find their confidence runs ahead of their accuracy.
Ideally confidence is high on the answers you got right and low on the ones you got wrong. If the two numbers are close, your confidence carries little information.
Each bar is the share of questions you actually got right at that stated confidence. The short black dash is perfect calibration: at 70% confidence, a perfectly calibrated person is right 70% of the time.