A Confidence Calibration Exercise
Do you know what you know?
Answer each true/false question below, then set the slider to how confident you are in your answer. 50% means you have no idea (a coin flip between the two choices); 100% means you are completely certain.
Good judgment is not just being right. It is knowing how likely you are to be right. Skip any question you like; only answered questions are scored.
You want your mean confidence and your actual percent correct to be as close as possible. Most people find their confidence runs ahead of their accuracy.
Ideally confidence is high on the answers you got right and low on the ones you got wrong. If the two numbers are close, your confidence carries little information.
Each dot is one confidence level: how often you were actually right when claiming that level of certainty (dot size = number of questions). On the dashed diagonal, confidence matches reality. Dots below the diagonal mean overconfidence; above it, underconfidence.